By Neil Evans
Track Heavy 9 and rail out 3m from 1000m to 350m into a cut/away and True the remainder.
Race 1 MAIDEN PLATE (1205m): |
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Home tracker 3. La Cache A Vin is hard fit, and can get punters off to a flyer at good odds, despite still searching for a breakthrough win after 15 starts. Ridden too close in heavy going two starts back before going back to the normal backmarker pattern at Grafton, and charging home to be beaten under two lengths in a race with a little more depth. Unproven in heavy, but drawn to get cover and is over the odds.
Dangers: Tough 1. Bobby Is King will be hard to hold out, despite first time on heavy ground. Was given a six week let-up after mixed outings in deeper races before hitting the line late as a short-priced favourite at Casino in Soft 7 ground. Suited under the set weight conditions, and should find a handy trail around midfield. Qld visitor 7. Westoak drops in class fifth-up, and gets blinkers back on, but still looks under the odds here; while 6. Key Legend is the best of the rest, dropping back from provincial company fifth-up, with an overdue gear change.
How to play it: La Cache A Vin to win and quinella 1 and 3
Race 2 MAIDEN HCP (1405m): |
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Trained on the track, very keen on improving four-year-old 9. The Riddler who shapes nicely fifth-up and significantly drops 4kg to the limit weight. Worked home okay from well back in a deeper race just nine days ago, and handles rain-affected ground.
Dangers: Deep into the oprep, 1. Carbrook is honest, and is also primed, stepping up sharply in distance. Was in the placings across four straight runs from on-speed before being ridden quieter two weeks back and finding the line late. The extra journey comes at the right time, and this is a thinner maiden. Big watch on locally-trained 7. Shez Lethal who is fifth-up, and gets an economical run just off the speed from the inside gate. Watch the betting on lightly raced 2. Vermeer, resuming off a steady trial for an underrated country stable.
How to play it: The Riddler to win
Race 3 CLASS 2 HCP (1405m): |
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Staying at the distance here for the better class gallopers, and it augurs well for progressive and provincial-based mare 5. Israelite Bay second-up over a furlong further. Won a CL1 at Doomben late last winter through a handy & deeper prep before running on okay in a BM 68 at Newcastle, her first outing for eight months in the new Nathan Doyle stable. Stronger jockey goes on here, and bred to thrive in heavy going.
Dangers: From an ideal draw and stepping up in class, 6. Extreme Merger is a threat third-up after being edged out in consecutive Class 1s, and also revels in wet ground. Gap to the rest headed by Gold Coast-based 7. Sarsen who is over the odds in these conditions fourth-up; while stablemate 3. Badgers Nuts resuming off a quiet trial; and 1. Noble Missile who relishes the going; can both add value into exotic returns.
How to play it: Israelite Bay to win
Race 4 MAIDEN PLATE (1005m): |
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From the same stable as the previous race, lightly raced filly 7. Ivy's Way can break through at her fourth start. Wasn't far away in two provincial runs to start her career before being eased right out at Hawkesbury, but had genuine excuses losing her action during the run and later found to be lame. Given five weeks since, and is well in at the weights after the rider's claim. Unproven in heavy ground, but bred to thrive being by Deep Field out of a Magic Albert mare.
Dangers: Respect for improving home tracker 2. Durusehvar second-up off a lengthy break if he backs up three days after racing at Taree. Big watch on emerging filly 9. Mediterranean Miss who dropped out after leading on debut at Grafton, but had previously bolted in a trial at this track in heavy ground. At much bigger odds, include local debutant 3. Sneaky Rich by Rich Enuff in exotic bets.
How to play it: Ivy's Way to win
Race 5 CLASS 2 HCP (1005m): |
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Tough and open sprint here with plenty of chances. Settled on locally-trained filly 4. Boambee Beach who is hard fit and continues to build an impressive record, six times in the money from 10 starts. Bolted in from the front at Grafton four starts ago before two fair closing runs at CL1 level, then hopped the border to finish best in a BM 60 run on a heavy track. Loves the trip, and from a middle gate she can position up just off the speed and off the fence.
Dangers: Plenty of them headed by 11. Call Me Super who has been sparingly raced this year, and hit the line late at Grafton a fortnight back. Another home tracker, 3. Speedy Target was a dominant winner in a weaker class after leading at that same Grafton meeting. Keep safe too at each way odds, 9. Nasdaq Dubai fifth-up, and three weeks between runs; while 1. Mr Bingo and home tracker 7. Change The Date, both resuming off lengthy breaks; are capable of running into the minor money.
How to play it: Boambee Beach to win
Race 6 CLASS 1 HCP (1205m): |
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It doesn't get much easier here, although four-year-old 11. Bring Me To Life is well placed on a better map fourth-up off a freshening. Has been in and around the money in his last three, swamped late after leading in a deeper affair two starts ago before only collared in the last few strides in a deeper BM 58. Right at peak fitness now, bred to thrive in rain-affected ground, and finds a race where there's very little opposition speed about.
Dangers: Improving 8. Chase The Sun reloads five weeks after running home late fourth-up in a handy CL1, and handles wet ground. Must respect the form of sparingly raced Gold Coast raider 1. I Stole It who drops in class, but way under the odds in what looks an unsuitable inside draw. Honest mare 5. Rum Revolution represents each way value fourth-up and dropping in weight; while well weighted local 9. Bellzen can run into the minor money over a bit more ground.
How to play it: Bring Me To Life to win
Race 7 BENCHMARK 82 HCP (1305m): |
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Competitive and very open field of older and higher graded gallopers on show here. Talented yet wayward home tracker 7. Olakau'atu can be hard to catch, but he's well placed on the limit weight here 15 days after a fair closing run in the Tamworth Cup Prelude. Handles wet ground, and from a draw where he can get right to the outside, is much better served back on the bigger track.
Dangers: Big value watch on 10. Gobbled, who has found the line well in his last two at Grafton, drops sharply in weight and relishes wet tracks. Tough mare 2. Boncassie has built a very impressive record at home, only once out of the money in nine starts, with four wins. Reloads 17 days after being swamped when leading in a BM 70 at Toowoomba, but she draws to get a preferred trail here, and back in at the weights after the jockey's 2kg claim. Include in all exotics, honest mare 1. Beef Week Princess 10 days after failing in a metro field over the border; Gold Coast-based 5. Sukhbir third-up; and 11. Lion Class deep into the
How to play it: Olakau'atu to win
Race 8 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1605m): |
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Underrated six-year-old 9. Endangered Species hasn't won for a long time, but this looks the right sort of race fourth-up at big odds off a month long freshen-up. Did his best work late two starts back in weaker company before again running on well from the back in a similar lineup to this at Grafton three weeks ago. Should settle back and get to the outside with a far more senior jockey taking over, and loves rain-affected ground.
Dangers: Improving mare 4. Proud With Pride is right in the race after an even effort in better grade at the Sunshine Coast. Was beaten under two lengths in a middle distance CL3 Highway at Rosehill four starts ago. Improving 7. Global Sensation has a poor strike rate, but handles the wet and has found the line well enough in two runs back from a spell. Watch for any money around good wet tracker 1. Introvert second-up; while 5. Fire Up Bruce also prefers rain-affected going, and can run into the money.
How to play it: Endangered Species each way
BEST BETS:
R2 9. THE RIDDLER
R4 7. IVY'S WAY
BEST VALUE:
R3 5. ISRAELITE BAY
All the fields, form and replays for Tuesday's Coffs Harbour meeting