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Neil Evans' Tips For Ballina (Monday)

By Neil Evans

Track Soft 6 and rail True:

Race 1 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1900m):

We start over the longer journey on a surface that will continue to improve. Keen on tough Gold Coast five-year-old 2. Jabbar who is hard fit, and ran home well to miss narrowly in a deeper BM 58 a fortnight ago. Can sit a bit closer here from a softer draw, and the more the track dries out the better placed he is.

Dangers: Improving mare 3. Proost has to slot in from the outside draw, but she's ready for the extra trip having flooded home to easily win her maiden over 1700m. Big gap to the rest headed by 1. Flying Banjo who draws the fence.

How to play it: Jabbar to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 2 FILLIES & MARES MAIDEN PLATE (1300m):

This shapes nicely for Sunny Coast mare 5. Savarosa third-up. Was supported in the betting at big odds before hitting the line in a deeper race at the Gold Coast, and the nine-day back-up is a sign of stable confidence.

Dangers: Gold Coast mare 2. Deelosh is fourth-up, and overdue after missing a place as an odds-on favorite at Lismore, and this isn't any stronger; while 7. Cherokee Girl who drew the inside; and 3. Peano Grigio third-up; can fight out the minor end of the prize.

How to play it: Savarosa to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 3 COLTS, GELDINGS & ENTIRES MAIDEN PLATE (1300m):

With early fancy Mirror One unlikely to back up from an unplaced effort on Saturday, improving four-year-old 2. Brave Instinction can break through in a thin race after sticking on okay first-up at big odds.

Dangers: Expecting 3. Formula Excel to improve second-up after a fair debut run in Australia since the move from Hong Kong; while 7. Victory Beans heads the rest.

How to play it: Brave Instinction to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 4 MAIDEN HCP (1000m):

Back to the pure sprint trip in a race with more depth. Like home track mare 5. Chickerartie resuming off a smart soft track trial win. Starts in easier company here after tackling provincial opposition last time, and trainer has removed the blinkers.

Dangers: Another very lightly raced one resuming off a lengthy break, 6. Belle's Boy is ready to rock off a dominant trial win, and is bred for speed. Watch the market aboard five-year-old 3. Lord Bronn who hasn't raced for nearly eight months, and not publicly trialed, but draws well and capable of firing fresh; while 10. Loud Attraction is a worthy exotics inclusion with a stronger rider going on.

How to play it: Chickeratie to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 5 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1000m):

Still over the five furlong dash, and another one first-up, Coffs four-year-old 1. Bow is the best credentialled. Didn't miss a place in four runs to start his career in autumn, including a smart maiden win at Grafton. Hasn't officially trialled, but reportedly been working well and comes to hand quickly. Used to carrying big weights, and the drying track is also on his side.

Dangers: Don't be put off by rival Coffs mare 10. Continuum who has carried the bridesmaid tag virtually all prep, but she loves this distance and a soft track. Fresh is best too for honest mare 3. Palawa Kani who has also by-passed official trials. The betting will tell a story aboard local five-year-old 2. Clifton Springs resuming off a near 10-month break and relocation to the Far North Coast. Both 7. Memphis Squaw who gets a soft run; and 8. Skoozi's Flyer who draws to get cover behind a last start win in weaker grade; go through trifecta and first four plays.

How to play it: Bow to win and first four 1,10/1,2,3,7,8,10/1,2,3,7,8,10/1,2,3,7,8,10/1,2,3,7,8,10
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 6 CLASS 1 HCP (1400m):

Likely the most open race of the meeting, with plenty of chances. Like improving three-year-old 9. Frozen Prince who hasn't been far away in his last two either side of the border. Suited by the extra 300m here, and Eagle Farm stable is underrated.

Dangers: Big watch on 2. Feirme Prince who reloads off a four week break via a soft trial, and draws the inside. Gold Coast mare 1. All's Fair went close third-up under a big weight, but more depth here. Keep safe 10. Brunel Kingdom dropping in weight; while included in exotics 5. Tycoon's Delight and 8. Sophia's Lass who both won their maidens first-up.

How to play it: Frozen Prince to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 7 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1250m):

Improving four-year-old 4. Kermantic peaks here fifth-up and dropping in class. Has been strong through the line in his last two up to BM 66 grade, and can settle just off the speed here before producing a superior closing final 400m burst.

Dangers: Keep safe honest seven-year-old 1. Look A'like who has won two of his last three; while 9. Mychyna is fourth-up and can run into a place.

How to play it: Kermantic to win
Odds and Evens: Split

BEST BETS:
R1 2. JABBAR
R5 1. BOW

BEST VALUE:
R7 4. KERMANTIC

All the fields, form and replays for Monday's meeting at Ballina

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