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Neil Evans' Tips For Albury (Monday)

By Neil Evans

Track Heavy 9 and rail out 7m from 650m to WP & 5.5m the remainder:

Race 1 MAIDEN HCP (1175m):

In a testing opener, two-year-old filly 8. Dantain's Prize by Prized Icon can strike on debut. Worked through the line when trialling on a Heavy 10, and is bred to thrive in the conditions on both sides. Drawn to stay off the fence, and this shapes as an ideal starting distance.

Dangers: 11. Bonnyville is a serious threat, placed in four of his last five, and gets a significant weight drop. Keep safe 3. Boys From Tennessee who is trained on the track, and working towards a breakthrough win at fourth start; while debutant stablemate 6. Lull Us Away is a market watch behind an easy trial.

How to play it: Dantain's Prize to win

Race 2 MAIDEN PLATE (900m):

Improving 3. Ditterich is well placed third-up in his second prep. Was well fancied when $2.60 into $2.15 tracking the speed here two starts ago before failing to run down the leader; then dropped out in a deeper Super Maiden after doing plenty of work from the wide gate. Back at this course, and dropping 100m for a race with less depth, are they keys.

Dangers: Watch the betting on locally-trained Merchant Navy colt 4. Mer Cher who starts behind an easy trial. Expect sharp improvement at his second start from 7. Magnolia Star carrying 2kg less. 8. Persister is a stablemate to the former, and can also improve sharply with blinkers going on; while first starter 2. Chance At Glory draws inside with a 3kg claim, and is the best of the rest.

How to play it: Ditterich to win

Race 3 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1000m):

Capable home tracker 5. Super Sunny Seeya is ready to win again, fourth-up and bred to handle the going. Was well backed when running home okay here resuming after covering ground before very stiff not to win a CL3 charging home from a long way back to miss by a long neck. Wasn't suited inside traffic on the smaller track at Narrandera; but back at home here when he can settle off the speed and get to the outside is the right recipe.

Dangers: Naturally lightly raced and rival local 6. Brial Rose is a clear threat after a dominant barrier to box win first-up in heavy ground. Canberra-based 3. Insane Volt resumes off a five month spell and quiet trial. 1. Ilzoomya drops in grade first-up; while 10. Khaleej despite a poor strike rate, is still over the odds third-up in ground he enjoys after twice hitting the line from well off the speed.

How to play it: Super Sunny Seeya to win

Race 4 MAIDEN PLATE (1500m):

Tough and progressive 3. Newyork Missile peaks big fourth-up, with blinkers being added. Did his best work late into a place in consecutive runs back from a spell before even more impressive in a handy maiden at Narrandera when running home hard in heavy ground after being backed from $4.60 into $4.20. Right at his top over 100m further returning to a bigger track; and supremely bred to thrive in the conditions being out of a Smart Missile mare.

Dangers: Big watch at the value around 6. Special Prophet who improves again fourth-up. Gap to the rest headed by 2. Manalore fifth-up who is bred to advantage in heavy ground; while front-running 7. Stage Master who is very fit; 8. Ten Feathers fourth-up; and 14. Supido Storm third-up in her first full prep; are all capable of running into the money.

How to play it: Newyork Missile to win

Race 5 CLASS 1 HCP (1175m):

Promising 3. Thoughtful can stay unbeaten at his second start. Came off a soft track trial win to thrash his opposition at home on a Heavy 9, and reportedly has trained on well since. Drawn further out here; but should get plenty of room to come across and again take up a forward roll just off the speed. Is naturally bred to get further and thrive in the ground.

Dangers: 4. Vegas Dream is a handy and fit galloper slipping back from a tougher Midway CL1 at the provincials, likes rain-affected ground, and gets a couple of important gear changes. Keep very safe capable filly 8. Bambi Belle who has been in and around the money all prep, possesses plenty of tactical speed, and blinkers go back on. Lightly raced 5. Black Panther steps up from a tough maiden win here three weeks ago; while improving 9. Imposing Tallulah gores in wider exotic plays third-up.

How to play it: Thoughtful to win

Race 6 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1600m):

Underrated 3. Nats Enough is hard fit, and can grab a second win in four starts over 100m further. Surged home from just off the speed to beat a handy BM 58 field before close-up in the placings in consecutive and deeper races, including a BM 82. Gets a nice weight drop for this with a 4kg claimer booked to ride, and all five career wins from 37 starts have come on either soft or heavy ground.

Dangers: 1. Star Blazer is the immediate threat coming off a dominant third-up barrier-to-box win here. Unproven in heavy ground, but bred to handle it. Provincial-based 4. Order To Change relishes rain-affected ground, and finds a thinner race fourth-up. Watch the betting on 5. Ashau Valley second-up over a furlong further; while both 9. Crazy Atom deep into her prep; and 10. Rabbit Stu dropping in weight third-up; go in trifecta and first four plays.

How to play it: Nats Enough to win

Race 7 BENCHMARK 74 HCP (1175m):

The feature wide open sprint shapes nicely for talented & still improving Victorian mare 10. Shooting For Stars peaking second-up. Was in and around the money last prep, including a dominant BM 66 win, before spelling. Then returned off a quiet trial with a powerful finishing effort fresh at Narrandera in heavy ground despite drifting in betting. Fitter now, better placed back on the bigger track, and has a rock-solid record in rain-affected going.

Dangers: 4. Kappy's Angel is over the odds fourth-up off a solid closing run in similar company, and boasts a 27 percent win rate from 20 starts. 2. Devine Miss will need to slot in from a wide draw, but was strong late when resuming behind a smart Federal winner at Canberra last start. 3. Eamonn's Memory is a stablemate of the top selection, and reloads off a six week break via a steady trial. A third runner from that same Wangaratta stable, 6. Mojo Music improves sharply second up over a bit further. Ex-South Australian mare 14. Connemara Queen resumes off a long break for the new Seymour stable, although unlikely to get a run deep into the emergencies; while 15. Star Buyer improves second-up, although also needs plenty of scratchings to gain a start.

How to play it: Shooting For Stars to win

Race 8 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1400m):

Another border-hopper, consistent 7. Copperfield from the same stable as the previous on top selection is primed deep into the prep. Ran home well through heavy going in a weaker race in SA before charging late to just miss at his home track under 60kg. Again hit the line hard as a rock solid favorite on the heavy at Wodonga, and even better placed here back on the bigger circuit. Hard fit, with a 50 percent record in the placings from 22 starts, he thrives in rain-affected ground.

Dangers: Another Victorian 1. Ruperts Red Rocket is building a smart record, and shoots for a third win from four starts this prep tackling a deeper race. Keep safe 10. Artistic Dancer who rolls forward and is a consistent weight carrier. 2. Stubbyholler draws to get a soft run inside, but a query at the price in heavy going; while last start BM 58 winner at Wodonga 4. Mescaminto; and locally-trained 3. Comanche North down in grade fifth-up; head the rest.

How to play it: Copperfield to win

Race 9 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1400m):

In-form Victorian 1. Smart Poppy can claim a fourth straight win. Swept home to win consecutive weaker-graded races before even more impressive in heavy going this grade at Narrandera when flooding home late under a big weight. Despite being supremely tested at the weights here, no reason why he can't continue on his merry way staying at the trip, with 80 percent of his career wins coming in wet ground.

Dangers: 3. Bannockburn peaks second-up after running home late when resuming here in a handy BM 58. Keep safe too 6. Little Basheba who draws off the track, but has enough speed to get across, unbeaten in heavy going, and has won two from there at this course. Gap to the rest headed by 5. Toronto Rain fifth-up; and local mare 7. Sweet Paree gunning for a third straight win; who both go in trifecta and first four plays.

How to play it: Smart Poppy to win

BEST BETS:
R2 3. DITTERICH
R3 5. SUPER SUNNY SEEYA

BEST VALUE:
R8 7. COPPERFIELD

All the fields, form and replays for Monday's Albury meeting

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