By Nick Berney
Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Friday's Muswellbrook meeting. Selections based on a good track. Monitor for bias/pattern.
Race 1 - 12:40PM MUSWELLBROOK COAL COMPANY MAIDEN HCP (1280 METRES) |
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12. Neddy wasn't suited to settling at the rear of the field in a very slow tempo last start at Narromine, but he charged home to run second and ran some of the fastest closing splits of the meeting. He races well on a quick backup, receives blinkers for the first time and the bigger track suits. Additionally, he brings a competitive last-start figure and can be in the finish.
Dangers: Expecting sharp improvement from 4. Gumagawax who had factors against last start at Newcastle in a high-rating race. He is still learning, but the extra ground is ideal and is a knockout chance. 10. Crux Rebellion finally struck a dry track first-up at Port Macquarie and tried hard in defeat after racing wide. He will be fitter for that effort and will roll forward. 2. Whoforgotspud will have benefited from race experience and Aaron Bullock sticks. Market watch on debutant 1. Mazita, who won a recent trial at this track.
How to play it: Neddy WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds) & Gumagawax WIN ($18 TAB Fixed Odds).
Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Neddy runs second last start at Narromine on April 20
Race 2 - 1:15PM GODOLPHIN TIARA BM 74 SHOWCASE HANDICAP (1450 METRES) |
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4. Diva Diva had the blinkers on for the first time last start at Wyong, but she had excuses. The mare was held-up at a key stage, losing momentum, but to her credit, she closed off well enough in a solid time race relative to the day. She brings strong metropolitan/provincial form lines, maps to have all favours from barrier one and is proven at the distance.
Dangers: Forget 2. Denetta's last start in the Polytrack Provincial-Midway Championship Final (1400m), where she was 35 days between runs and struck a very testing track. She drops significantly in grade and has previously won at this track. 5. What A Peach has been racing well this campaign and receives winkers for the first time. She maps to stalk the pace and expect her to sprint hard. 3. Malty Malt won a recent trial under a tight hold.
How to play it: Diva Diva WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Diva Diva last start at Wyong on April 20
R3 - 1:50PM BOYLE ESTATE AGENTS PROFESSIONALS MUSWELLBROOK BM 58 (1750 M) |
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6. Turnaround Time has progressed well this preparation from a ratings perspective and is ready to peak fourth-up with a strong platform. The gelding raced wide throughout last start at Mudgee but kept trying to the line. He is a rock-hard fit, proven at the distance and receives a significant barrier change allowing him to have a much more economical run through transit. Each-way.
Dangers: 3. Midori Fuji raced well first-up at this track, then had no luck last start at Orange, albeit starting a well-fancied $2.5 favourite. He is still relatively lightly raced and expect improvement third-up. 2. Jimmy Manolo is a consistent galloper and a last-start winner. 10. Rothrock bolted in last start at Port Macquarie and was eased down. She must step in grade but will roll forward and give a sight. 5. Heika was heavily backed on debut and can excel at 1750m but has been well-found in early markets.
How to play it: Turnaround Time E/W ($14 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Turnaround Time's last start at Mudgee on April 9
R4 - 2:25PM SCONE EQUINE HOSPITAL SHOWCASE STAR KINGDOM 2YO C&G HCP (1000 M) |
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1. Chevron brings a significant race experience edge into this assignment and has trialled well recently at Randwick under a tight hold. The colt has strong form lines around the likes of Red Resistance and Cafe Millenium from last preparation. He looks to have returned improved, and with a positive race setup, expect him to race well fresh.
Dangers: 6. Metallic Ruler showed style to win a recent trial at Beaumont. He did it easily and can sprint hard on debut from a soft draw. 2. Edited By got too far back first-up at Hawkesbury but ran on well, indicating he could step off that performance. 3. Kiribati has trialled well enough and is a key late-market watch.
How to play it: Chevron WIN ($2.15 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Chevron's latest trial at Randwick on April 18
R5 - 3:05PM ARROWFIELD SHOWCASE MISS FINLAND 2YO FILLIES HCP (1000 M) |
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Leaning towards debutante 8. Lyrical Beauty, who showed style when winning a recent trial at this track. She is well-educated, showed a sharp turn of foot and went through the line full of energy. The filly maps to have an economical run, and the big track is ideal.
Dangers: 4. Altisima comes through the same set of trials as Lyrical Beauty, and she ran faster overall time when winning her heat. She must contend with a tricky draw, but a senior rider goes on for race day, and she is a key late market watch.2. Gerety won well first-up last prep at Coffs Harbour and was immediately spelled. Another first starter from the Kris Lees yard is 5. Bangetta, who has a favourable map.
How to play it: Lyrical Beauty WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Lyrical Beauty wins a trial at Muswellbrook on April 13
Race 6 - 3:40PM MANGOOLA COAL BENCHMARK 58 HANDICAP (1280 METRES) |
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Lightly raced improver 6. Kissaki is on an upwards ratings spiral, and all key indicators suggest she can step off her last performance. The three-year-old bolted in to score at this track/distance 18 days ago and ran fast overall time relative to the day after adjustments. Further, the clock backed her visual acceleration and late strength, with the filly recording the fastest final 200m split of the meeting. She has a positive race setup, brings the best last-start figure and will be hard to beat with even luck.
Dangers: 1. Remoreseless has had factors against his past two starts in stronger grades, and he can bounce back here. Moreover, he is coming out of time/sectional merit races and back to a dry surface suits. 5. Shen Gui led at a fast pace last start at this track/distance and battled well to hold fourth. 9. Holly Road raced in the inferior ground last start and will be fitter for that effort. Add 4. Lucifer's Reward to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Kissaki WIN ($1.45 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Kissaki wins last start at Muswellbrook on April 10
Race 7 - 4:20PM MUSWELLBROOK RSL SHOWCASE LONE PINE CHARGE (1000 METRES) |
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4. Le Melody, who resumes, won a trial at Scone in style and ran the fastest overall time relative to the morning. Further, she went through the line full of energy and defeated Quilting, who subsequently raced well at the metropolitan level. The Cody Morgan trained galloper has a fantastic record/SP profile, and her peak figures have come first-up on the dry ground. The four-year-old will roll forward from gate one and be hard to catch.
Dangers: 5. Luna Rocks is another lightly raced galloper who has also trialled well. She has talent, maps to have all favours and a definite chance. 3. Big Happiness fended off late challengers to score first-up last campaign at Gosford and 6. Upside brings a race fitness edge. Market watch 1. Tuscon Valley who has a big weight but can give a sight.
How to play it: Le Melody WIN ($1.90 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Le Melody wins a trial at Scone on March 28
Race 8 - 4:55PM VIATEK NSW JERRYS PLAINS CUP BM 58 HCP (1500 METRES) |
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1. Media Man has a strong record at this track/distance, and he raced well last start, albeit getting too far back in the run. He has been consistent in stronger grades all campaign and receives a much more positive race setup here. The five-year-old receives a significant barrier change allowing him to settle closer; Aaron Bullock rides for the first time and has multiple winning ratings. In addition, the anticipated genuine tempo will suit and expect him to savage the line. Each-way.
Dangers: 4. Bob is first-up and has had two solid trials. He isn't a usual proven fresh performer but is well placed here and has strong form lines. 12. Elegant Poetess was 38 days between runs last start and ran on well. She is improving throughout her prep and the dry track suits. 9. Blue Jager is suited second-up and 3. Gold Witness is on a 10-day backup with a positive map.
How to play it: Media Man E/W ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Media Man last start at Muswellbrook on April 10
Best Bet: Race 7 # 4 – Le Melody
Next Best: Race 4 # 1 – Chevron
Best Value: Race 1 # 12 – Neddy & # 4 – Gumagawax
All the fields, form and replays for Friday's Muswellbrook meeting