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By Nick Berney

Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Friday’s Muswellbrook meeting. Selections based on a soft track. Monitor for bias/pattern.

D-Day 1. Secret Revolution who has promised to be well above maiden grade but has had genuine excuses this preparation. The three-year-old returned as a gelding and should’ve finished much closer first-up at Kensington but was checked/blocked for most of the straight. Additionally, he failed on a very testing track second-up after starting hard in the market. The Peter & Paul Snowden trained galloper has since been back to the trials with the blinkers going on and ran very fast time relative to the morning. The wide draw is of little concern as there is only one turn from the 1000m chute start, and he looks to have a class edge.

Dangers: Debutante 12. Idalo has trialled well enough, maps to have all favours, and a senior rider goes on for race day. Market watch 9. Mrs Patmore who raced in group company last preparation and 5. Let’s Roll is wound up for this event.

How to play it: Secret Revolution WIN ($2.20 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Secret Revolution wins a trial at Randwick on June 14

6. Oakfield Redgum resumed at Newcastle 11 days ago after one soft trial and was unsuited in the slow tempo. The three-year-old filly was outpaced when the sprint went on, but once she balanced up, she hit the line well and maintained a strong finishing speed. Further, she posted one of the fastest final 600m splits of the meeting in 36.31. The Damien Lane trained galloper is a raw type and will undoubtedly strip fitter, with the step up in distance being ideal. In addition, any improvement from her first-up effort will put her right in the finish.

Dangers: 4. Nullify is ultra-consistent and brings a competitive ratings profile. The Peter & Paul Snowden trained filly chased hard first-up at Goulburn and will be fitter for that effort. She maps to have all favours and expect a bold showing. 1. Regalo Doro comes out of the astute Brett Cavanough stable and had excuses last start. He is a key late market watch. Add 10. Rose Of Mahtoum and 9. Princess Adelaide who are both coming out of proven form references.

How to play it: Oakfield Redgum WIN ($3.40 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.

Oakfield Redgum runs third at Newcastle on June 20

1. Recommendation is a nice type and won in style on debut at Gosford 22 days ago. The two-year-old colt was visually impressive, but the clock supported his performance. He led and was suited but ran the entire meeting’s fastest final 200m split in 11.52. Further, he pulled away from his rivals and went through the line full of energy. The Ciaron Maher & David Eustace trained galloper brings the clear best last start figure, maps to control the pace and is hard to beat with even luck.

Dangers: 3. My Belladonna had excuses last start after racing wide throughout in a strong tempo, but she never shirked the task to her credit. Additionally, the form out of that race has since been proven with a subsequent winner. Expect an aggressive ride, and she is ready to peak third-up.
2. Just One Look had every chance last start at Scone but is racing consistently and coming out of time/sectional merit races. Add 4. Lady Superspy and 8. Noble Pluck to all exotics.

How to play it: Recommendation WIN ($1.85 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Recommendation wins last start at Gosford on June 9

5. Oakfield Mahogany was a solid winner first-up at Gosford, producing a career peak figure and running fast time relative to the day. The gelding then jumped significantly in grade second-up and was honest, running fifth at Warwick Farm in a Benchmark 64. However, he didn’t appreciate being crowded and racing in between horses. Expect an aggressive ride from jockey Ashley Morgan early so he can lead and travel within his own rhythm. In addition, he is proven on the rain-affected ground and brings a strong starting price and ratings profile for this event.

Dangers: Key market watch on 2. Rebel County who showed ability in his first campaign and has had three trials leading into this. 3. Angelical has a strong record and receives winkers for the first time. Add 8. Tidal Rush to trifectas and first fours.

How to play it: Oakfield Mahogany WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Oakfield Mahogany runs fifth at Warwick Farm on June 13

9. Dot Com, who represents value, resumed at Scone 17 days ago for her new trainer Lou Mary and she hit the line hard after interference in the final straight. After getting too far back, the three-year-old filly had too much to do and then was checked/blocked at critical stages, losing momentum. Moreover, one balancing up, she savaged the line running one of the fastest final 200m splits of the meeting in 11.51. That race rated the highest overall relative to the meeting when historically comparing time, class and additional factors. She will have it all to do from the wide draw but will be fitter, further distance suits, and the big track is ideal.

Dangers: 6. Vengeful has had no luck/factors against him in both of his career starts on the provincial circuit and is a definite chance here. Debutante 14. Powerful Peg for trainer Kris Lees has trialled well in strong time/sectional merit heats relative to the morning. The two-year-old burst through a gap in her latest hit out and looked to have style. 13. Kwik Az Hell is suited second-up over more ground. Add 7. All Too Scottish and 11. Valoria to all exotics.

How to play it: Dot Com WIN ($12 TAB Fixed Odds) & Vengeful WIN ($7.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Dot Com runs third at Scone on June 14

6. The Chosen One resumed at Wyong 15 days ago, and although run to suit, he hit the line hard. The five-year-old will be fitter for that effort and he receives a significant barrier change. He can settle much closer, drops in grade and brings the clear best last start figure.

Dangers: 2. Patagonian can bounce back into form down in grade and will be hitting the line hard. 8. Denetta has been a revelation this preparation and has won her past two starts. She maps to have all favours and can improve again. 3. Tupou is back in distance but can rate to win.

How to play it: The Chosen One WIN ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.

The Chosen One runs third at Wyong on June 16

2. Alicia Roma started a well-backed favourite last start at Gosford 22 days ago and tried hard in defeat. The lightly raced filly had all favours leading at a moderate pace but was honest and sprinted one of the fastest last 600m splits of the day in 35.02. Further, that race rated highly relative to the day, and there has been a subsequent winner to confirm the form. The three-year-old has a solid starting price profile and has multiple winning ratings. Additionally, the wide draw is of little concern as there is only one turn from the 1000m chute start, and she drops back to country grade.

Dangers: 9. Flashy Gift bolted in on debut at Goulburn 14 days ago and ran fast time. The Brad Widdup trained galloper did it in style and can make the rise in grade. She maps to get all favours and is proven on rain-affected ground. 1. Oakfield Duke raced wide and ran fast time winning last start at Scone. 7. Babayka is an improving type and must go in all trifectas and first fours.

How to play it: Alicia Roma WIN ($2.20 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Alicia Roma runs second at Gosford on June 9

2. Holy Tycoon resumes without an official public trial but is a consistent type and raced well first-up last preparation. The three-year-old filly is still relatively lightly raced and progressed through the grades last campaign. She will roll forward and it’s worth noting apprentice Bailey Wheeler is riding at 24.8% profit on turnover from his last 100 mounts.

Dangers: 4. Shen Gui resumes at an unsuitable distance, but class will take him a long way. The gelding has TAB Highway form and is a consistent type. Add 10. Thunder Rose and 6. Arimathea to all exotics.

How to play it: Holy Tycoon WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.

Holy Tycoon first-up last preparation at Hawkesbury on December 16

Best Bet: Race 2 # 6 – Oakfield Redgum

Next Best: Race 7 # 2 - Alicia Roma

Best Value: Race 5 # 9 – Dot Com & # 6 - Vengeful

All the fields, form and replays for Friday’s Muswellbrook meeting