By Ray Hickson
An in depth look at the chances of every runner in Sunday's $40,000 Mannion Drilling Gunnedah Cup (1600m), a Big Dance eligible race.
1. Bethencourt (SCRATCHED).
2. Criaderas (Cody Morgan): One time boom galloper who hasn’t fired a shot in two starts since leaving the Godolphin camp. In the Scone Cup he drew wide and went back but didn’t hit the line like the Criaderas of old. He faces a similarly big task from the wide alley again, a little less depth in the race helps but there’s not a lot less given some of them up there in the weights with him. Happy to pass until he shows something.
3. Akasawa (Paul Messara): Relished the step up in distance to win a Benchmark 78 (city grade) at the Scone carnival over 1700m with 60.5kg so he’s not badly placed rising 3kg but coming back to open country class. A winner of seven from 12 and he didn’t run badly in the Country Championships Final or Tamworth Cup when staying at the 1400m. If he can hold a reasonable spot from the good gate, he doesn’t want to be buried too far back at this track, and finish like he did last time he’ll take beating 63.5kg and all.
4. Cognac (Richard & Will Freedman): Form is a bit mixed this preparation but did win in open company at Warwick Farm on Easter Monday over the mile. Shade disappointing at Hawkesbury after that. Happy enough to overlook the Wagga Cup run at the 2000m as any pointer to this. He did win the Bathurst Cup last spring with 60kg so carrying just 0.5kg more here he should have his chance to give a sight up front.
5. Rogue Bear (Kris Lees): Creates plenty of interest on the back of a luckless fourth at his third Australian start on the Kensington track two weeks ago. Was travelling well three back on the fence but spent the straight climbing over their backs, only getting out when it was all over. Led at his previous start which isn’t his go but still ran well behind Palmetto. Should enjoy a nice run from the inside alley and is a major player.
6. Baltic Coast (Kris Lees): Has found his form up in Brisbane at his last couple of starts and will be a month between runs going into this race. He looked exciting early on but hasn’t quite measured right up to Sydney grade just yet. He still might. Rises 2.5kg on his last start win suggesting that wasn’t overly strong but on his side he’ll run a strong mile and has Dylan Gibbons back on board. Thought he shouldn’t be a shorter price than his stablemate above but is an each-way chance.
7. Highlights (Cody Morgan): Has some work to do to turn the tables on Akasawa from the Scone race where he received 5kg from the winner and finished over five lengths astern. He’s actually 0.5kg worse off at the weights which doesn’t help. Ran a nice race for third behind Palmetto before that so he is in the discussion on that performance but at the same time needs a peak effort.
8. Sailor (Kris Lees): Had support in betting last start in the same race as Rogue Bear and after sitting on the speed wasn’t able to beat that horse home. So that’s a bit of a concern. He won a couple of races around a mile in Brisbane last preparation and gets a 3kg drop on his last start so they are positives for him. Probably around his right price close to $20.
9. Five Crowns (Kris Lees): Right out of form in two runs back and was a $61 chance when finishing at the tail in a Benchmark 72 at Kensington last start. It would be quite a form reversal if he was able to win.
10. Floating (Matthew Smith): Didn’t finish off his race like we’re used to seeing at Scone last time, beaten 6.6 lengths by Akasawa. He has a 2.5kg swing in his favour which will be handy and prior to that run he was just nabbed on the line at Rosehill in a Benchmark 78. Whether going from three heavy track runs to good was against him is possible but with that last run under his belt now that shouldn’t be an excuse. Has the type of finish that can make him dangerous if he finds the right back to follow.
11. Scorched Land (SCRATCHED).
12. Osman (Mack Griffith): Brushed off an inexplicable failure at Mudgee to run his rivals into the ground in the Parkes Cup over the mile. He’s an on pacer coming through the grades nicely and facing his biggest test in this field. Will carry the same weight here and Kody Nestor knows him well. No surprise if he gives a big sight.
13. Lemaire (Tara & Philippe Vigouroux): Took plenty of catching in a 1700m Midway at the Scone carnival after leading from a wide gate. Draws out again and only drops 1kg into this stronger race. Imagine he will look to try to get across and be on the pace but this might be a bit beyond him.
14. Tim’s Principal (SCRATCHED).
15. Sea Of Flames (SCRATCHED).
16. Annie’s Street (Gavin Groth): Last year’s winner of this race where she beat Two Big Fari, and it was her last win. Narrowly beaten by Point Counterpoint in the Moree Cup at Tamworth in September which isn’t bad form, albeit on a heavy track. Was five weeks between runs going into the Gooree Cup where she started $51 and probably faces the same sort of chance price wise here.
17. Rich And Shameless (Scott Singleton): Faces a task from the outside alley and he’s been racing in moderate company in two runs since a handy placing in an open handicap at Tamworth. Lugged 64kg last start at Dubbo so the 9kg less will be appreciated but it’s hard to see him being a factor on form and race shape.
18. Barellan Bandit (John Ramsey): Outsprinted at 1000m first-up then outclassed in the Luskin Star at Scone behind Opal Ridge. The plus for him is he’s starting to get out to his preferred distance range, the obvious negative is the class. His last win was over a mile at Tamworth in an open handicap and prefer to wait until he returns to that sort of company.
19. Texas Storm (Glen Milligan): Rising nine-year-old who wasn't disgraced in the Country Cup at Scone as a $151 chance boxing on to finish sixth. He's been an honest customer but he hasn't filled a placing in eight starts this preparation so a win here would be a surprise.
20. Maly Malt (Sue Grills): Also comes through the Country Cup where she finished just behind Texas Storm after also holding her ground. Was a winner at a mile before a spell but in Class 3 company. She is lightly raced and has more wins ahead of her but she's thrown in the deep end here.
SELECTIONS:
3 AKASAWA
5 Rogue Bear
10 Floating
12 Osman
All the fields, form and replays for Sunday's Gunnedah Cup meeting