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By Nick Berney

Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Friday’s Goulburn meeting. Selections based on a heavy track. Monitor for bias/pattern.

1. Noble Legend is coming out time/sectional merit races this preparation and looks set to peak third-up. The three-year-old gelding had the bias against him last start in a high-rating race at Warwick Farm 16 days ago and battled on well for third place. Additionally, there has been a subsequent winner to confirm the form. He will appreciate the bigger track and gets blinkers on for the first time.

Dangers: 8. Seany’s Girl was unsuited in a very slow tempo last start at Kembla and was 28 days between runs. Further, she ran the fastest 400m-200m split of the entire meeting in 11.12 before peaking on her run. She will be fitter for that effort and has recently run over the same distance. 3. Rovers Pepper was honest at Canterbury last start in a strong time race. He gets his chance dropping back to the country circuit, and maps well. Add 6. Hippie Hollow to trifectas and first fours.

How to play it: Noble Legend WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Noble Legend runs third last start at Warwick Farm on July 13

Three-year-old 1. Flyway is coming out of time/sectional merit races all preparation and is on an upwards ratings spiral. The gelding was well beaten last start but tried hard in defeat in a high-rating race. The Edward Cummings trained galloper is rock-hard fit, brings the best last start figure, receives blinkers for the first time and is well placed in this grade.

Dangers: 3. Speedy Song was 34 days between runs last start at Kembla and was well backed $4.5-$3.50 late in the trade. Further, he loomed into the race but peaked on his run and will be fitter for that effort. Third-up last prep, he produced his career peak figure and is proven on rain-affected ground. 8. Bridget Wenlock drops significantly in grade, albeit starting $101 in the market last start at Rosehill. She is a key late market watch. Add 5. Absurd and 6. Edgewise to trifectas and first fours.

How to play it: Flyway WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Flyway runs second at Wyong on July 19

1. Rebel County led at a solid tempo first-up at Muswellbrook and stuck on well for fourth place in a strong time race. Further, the other on-pace runners faded badly, which added merit to his performance. The Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou trained galloper will be fitter for that effort, maps to control the pace, is proven on the rain-affected ground and has multiple winning figures for this assignment.

Dangers: 7. Karaoke King didn’t have much luck last start at Grafton in a fast-time race where he was checked/blocked at a critical stage and lost his momentum. Expect a patient ride from jockey Blake Spriggs and utilise his short sharp sprint to his advantage. 8. Zarafah is coming out of a proven form reference and will be fitter for this assignment. Additionally, she produces her career peak figures on wet tracks and can rate to win. Add 9. The Pres and 6. Smarter Than You to trifectas and first fours.

How to play it: Rebel County WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Rebel County runs fourth at Muswellbrook on July 1

4. Negation is still learning but won well at this track 11 days ago and ran time. Although she found the superior ground, all her merit was in the clock, and she recorded one of the fastest final 400m splits of the entire meeting in 23.00. The two-year-old filly brings the best last start figure, is suited up in distance and is proven on heavy ground. Expect her to hit the line hard.

Dangers: 3. Yasamine has trialled well and ran time, winning her latest heat at Hawkesbury. The Richard & Will Freedman trained galloper produced her career peak figure at this track first-up, and a repeat of that effort will put her in the finish. She will have to give away a fitness edge, but the filly has strong provincial form lines for this event and is a definite chance. 7. Choose Your Words brought the field up to a tearaway leader last start at Scone and tried hard to hold on for third. She maps to control the pace and will take some catching. Forgive 6. Cellbridge’s last start where she was found to be slow to recover.

How to play it: Negation WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Negation wins at Goulburn on July 18

4. Eastern Glow had factors against last start and wasn’t entirely happy around the tight turning Queanbeyan track but still won on raw ability. The three-year-old raced wide throughout and wasn’t suited to settling back in a moderate tempo, but he made a long-sustained run to score. Before that start, he hit the line hard, running second in a high-rating race at Canberra and producing one of the fastest final 200m splits of the meeting in 12.52. He is a lightly raced improver ideally suited over the further distance and onto a bigger track.

Dangers: 5. Redente Choice had nearly every chance last start at Hawkesbury but tried hard in defeat. Further, that race rated very strongly relative to the day, and he drops in grade here. The gelding is rock-hard fit and has a win on heavy ground. 7. Zo Purrfect had the pace/bias against him last start and ran on well. He receives a senior rider, maps well and revels in the testing conditions. Outahand drops in grade and will be fitter.

How to play it: Eastern Glow WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Eastern Glow wins at Queanbeyan on July 11

Leaning towards 2. Per Ivy who resumes and has recently trialled well in a fast time heat at Hawkesbury. The three-year-old filly hit the line well to score on debut last preparation running one of the fastest final 600m sectionals of the entire meeting in 34.53. She has strong form lines for this event, should get run to suit with an anticipated genuine tempo and expect her to be in the finish if she can reproduce her first-up figure from last prep.

Dangers: 4. Privatisation ran time when winning at this track/distance 21 days ago. She has a similar setup to last start, strikes a heavy track again and should get all favours from the soft draw. The Ciaron Maher & David Eustace trained galloper is the standout danger and has a fitness edge on her main rival. 7. Apple Cubed was a dominant winner at Dubbo last start when starting a solid $2.40 favourite. He jumps in grade but will roll forward and give a sight.

How to play it: Per Ivy WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.

Per Ivy runs fourth in a trial at Hawkesbury on July 18

5. Amazing Nicci was 48 days between runs last start at Gosford and had the pace/bias against her running on ok for fourth. The three-year-old filly receives a senior jockey, maps well, and the step back to 1000m is ideal, being her specialist distance. Each-way.

Dangers: 3. I love Lucy led all the way to score at Scone last start. She is fit and gets in well at the weights with the claim. 4. Princess Spice was brave in defeat at this track/distance 11 days ago. The locally trained filly brings the best last start figure and is a definite chance. Add 8. Emperors Star and 1. Smugglers Bay to trifectas and first fours.

How to play it: Amazing Nicci E/W ($7.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Amazing Nicci runs fourth at Gosford on July 14

Debutant 1. Golden Fighter is a nice type and has trialled impressively for his first-up assignment. The three-year-old gelding smashed the clock in his latest heat, running fast time/sectionals relative to the rest of the morning at Hawkesbury. He is wound up for this, has natural gate speed, a good-looking action and appears above country maiden grade. The wide draw is of little concern as there is only one turn from the 1000m chute, and he may also get the track pattern to suit. It’s worth noting the trainer/jockey combination is striking at a 33.5% profit on turnover. Expect a bold showing.

Dangers: 7. Ferrari Man, the key danger, has strong form lines from the provincial/metropolitan level and has multiple winning figures for this. The Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott trained galloper has trialled ok, albeit on the synthetic track, and he will give a sight. Add 2. Spot On Ready and 3. Aureus Angel to trifectas/first fours who are both coming out of time/sectional merit races from last prep.

How to play it: Golden Fighter WIN ($2.25 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Golden Fighter wins a trial at Hawkesbury on July 18

Best Bet: Race 2 # 1 - Flyway

Next Best: Race 8 # 1 – Golden Fighter

Best Value: Race 7 # 5 – Amazing Nicci

All the fields, form and replays for Friday’s Goulburn meeting