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By Tony Megahey

Many factors confront the exciting Tavi Time for the Kris Lees stable in Friday’s historic $75,000 Robert Oatley Mudgee Showcase Cup (1600m) - a qualifying race for the $3m Big Dance.

The $1.90 TAB favourite will face a rain-affected track (currently a Heavy 8 but expected to improve), a steep weight rise, going up in grade and a tighter Mudgee track.

Multiple regional premiership-winning trainer Lees campaigns many of his horses to qualify early towards successive wins in the $3m Big Dance (run at Royal Randwick in November '24), having won last year’s inaugural feature with Rustic Steel.

Tavi Time glides home under Dylan Gibbons at Newcastle. Image by Bradley Photographers

That horse contests the Group 3-James Squire Festival Stakes at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday where he is a $4.60 equal favorite on TAB with Grebeni.

Early betting and form suggests tomorrow's Mudgee Cup is a two-horse race between Tavi Time who overcame adversity for a big win at Newcastle recently and Annabel Neasham’s Watadeel ($4.40 into $3.90).

Watadeel is the only last start Flemington winner ever seen at uptown Mudgee.

Significantly, Watadeel has won three races on rain-affected tracks as his daunting 62kg off a Benchmark 90 win with 53kg at Flemington has been reduced by the 2kg claim for Braith Nock.

While Tavi Time with two wins on soft rises to 59kg for regional ace Aaron Bullock, after the 55.5kg for a Newcastle BM 78 win with Dylan Gibbons.

So what are punters to make of just a 1kg weight swing and the significant price difference between a Flemington BM90 and Sandown winner who has won on heavy, against the potential of a Newcastle BM 78 winner?

Primarily though the opinion of Lees who has select gallopers targeted at the qualifying Cups.

“Valid point him only getting a kilo off a Flemington winner but he’s got so much upside, I thought we get around the 59 kilos, so that’s about right,” Lees offered.

“I’m hearing the track will improve up there in clearing weather but no issue, he gets through ground won twice on soft and he's trained on nicely.

“I couldn’t be happier with Rustic Steel either, drawn a gate, he’ll run really well at Rosehill. “

The Watadeel ride is the biggest occasion yet for young Braith Nock, the son of trainer Jane Clement.

As Jamie Kah has ridden the Dundeel gelding’s past four Melbourne starts including 1600m win at Flemington three weeks ago.

Tight and turning Mudgee is hook shaped, 1800m in circumference and a 450m straight where inside barriers and being on-pace are an advantage.

View the final fields with full form & race replays for Mudgee here